A Deep Breath For China

Saving energy and cutting airborne emissions are squarely at the top of China's national agenda for 2010. According to the 11th Five Year Plan, per-unit GDP energy consumption must be cut to 20 percent of 2005 levels, while COD (chemical oxygen demand) and sulfur dioxide emissions are to be slashed 10 percent each.

Premier Wen Jiabao declared at the Summer Davos World Economic Forum in September 2009 that these goals would be reached – and on schedule.

Xie Zhenhua, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), later characterized these environmental moves as a solemn government promise to the people, saying all available means and procedures would be mobilized to ensure fulfilment.

But some wonder whether the plan, which is rooted in a troubled past, really can succeed. Moreover, environmental issues beyond air quality – from algae-choked lakes to heavy metal pollution – still loom large for China.

A similar emissions goal spelled out in the 10th Five Year Plan for the period 2001-'05 called for 10 percent reductions in COD and sulfur dioxide. But the project was scaled back to a disappointing 2 percent decrease in COD, and a shocking 27 percent increase in sulfur dioxide emissions.

Shaky Start

What happened? A key roadblock to meeting the original goal was the government's standard use of GDP growth as the core evaluation criteria for Communist Party cadres. Another was that the country's extensive economic growth was coupled with relatively weak environmental monitoring.

In 2006 -- the first year of the 11th Five Year Plan -- COD emissions jumped 1 percent while sulfur dioxide emissions rose 1.5 percent. The next year, major pollutant emissions did not increase, although the decreases failed to meet government targets.

Energy conservation goals were similarly hobbled. In 2006, while nationwide per-unit GDP energy consumption fell 1.33 percent, energy consumption reduction targets were missed in every area of the country except Beijing. A revision in GDP figures lowered the energy use increase to 1.79 percent, but even that was far short of the goal.

A turnaround began in 2008, when COD emissions fell 4.42 percent and sulfur dioxide output declined 5.95 percent. That year's figures were 6.61 percent and 8.95 percent of 2005 levels, respectively. It was the first time these goals were met according to the government's timetable.

Since then, despite the worldwide financial crisis and industrial adjustments, the government has invested heavily in desulfurization and water purification, and also opened a number of environmental clean-up facilities. Additionally, the government has tightened control of enterprises with high levels of pollution, energy consumption and resource demand, while strengthening environmental oversight agencies and incorporating emissions reduction targets into official performance criteria.

By shuttering outdated production equipment and strengthening conservation and emissions reduction oversight procedures, China's per-unit GDP energy consumption declined 4.59 percent in 2008 -- the first reduction during the 11th Five Year Plan period.

According to the Ministry of Environmental Protection, nationwide COD emissions totalled 657,600 tons in the first half 2009 -- 2.46 percent less than in the same period 2008 – while sulfur dioxide emissions were reduced to 1,147,800 tons, down 5.4 percent from the previous year.

It appears sulfur dioxide goals for the 11th Five Year Plan may be met ahead of schedule, while bringing COD levels into compliance in 2010 should be possible.

Energy conservation, however, is proving more difficult. By 2008, per-unit GDP energy consumption was down only 10.1 percent from 2005 levels, putting the savings plan behind schedule.

In the first half 2009, nationwide per-unit GDP energy consumption fell 2.89 percent in the first quarter, making for a total decrease of 3.35 percent and an increase of 0.47 percentage points in terms of year-on-year decline.

As Xie said, reaching the goals of the 11th Five Year Plan will be no easy task.

More to Do
 
Meanwhile, work on the 12th Five Year Plan is under way. Officials say it will not be a mirror of the previous plan. Among the changes expected are first-time limits on carbon intensity.

Wen said carbon intensity reduction targets would be incorporated into the overall national economic plan, and that the per-unit GDP carbon intensity target for 2020 would be between 40 and 45 percent below 2005 figures.

Another possibility is that the current slate of reductions in energy consumption and emissions will be maintained while combined with requirements for carbon intensity. Alternatively, carbon intensity reduction standards could replace the current conservation goals.

Regardless, China will inevitably have to transform its current single-indicator regulatory system and build a comprehensive administrative structure for emissions limits.

Drawbacks of a single-indicator system have come to light. For example, although carbon emissions chiefly result from fossil fuels burning and are closely linked with energy consumption, they also touch virtually every aspect of modern life. So any cutback effort would impact the entire economic and social landscape.

Moreover, sulfur dioxide limits are not enough to clear the air. Even though sulfur dioxide targets will almost certainly be met before the end of the 11th Five Year Plan, emissions of the gases nitric oxide and nitrogen oxide (NOx) are rising. These gas emissions have risen rapidly as, for example, NOx emissions from power stations quintupled between 2003 and '07.

Water pollution is equally embarrassing, underscoring additional missed targets. Currently, although COD levels in waterways have declined, amounts of blue-green algae in lakes and other bodies of water have been growing. The algae feed on nitrogen, phosphorous and other pollutants.

What's worth even greater attention is heavy metal pollution. In 2009, for example, levels of lead in the blood of residents in Shaanxi, Hunan, Yunnan, Fujian, Guangdong and Henan provinces rose sharply. A large number of those identified with unacceptable levels of lead in blood were children.

In June 2009, the heavy metal cadmium caused widespread pollution after an incident at a chemical factory in the Henan city of Liuyang. More than 100 people were found to have dangerous amounts of the metal in their systems, and pollution contaminated 4 square kilometers of farmland.

These setbacks, coupled with a severe lead poisoning incident in Hui County in Gansu Province in 2006, point to an alarming trend of heavy metals poisoning. But to date, only Hunan authorities have plans to reduce emissions of arsenic, cadmium and other heavy metals. And many provincial governments, including their environmental protection departments, have given only scant attention to notifying the public with pollution information.

As early as 2006, the former State Environmental Protection Administration, in cooperation with the Ministry of Land, launched a first-ever, 1 billion yuan nationwide soil pollution survey. Preliminary data has been collected and is being prepared. But it's unclear whether survey results will be published in 2010.

Emissions cuts and energy-saving initiatives underscore China's commitment to the environment, but more work remains.